Make Your Own Predictions
Think you can beat the model? Pick winners across all 24 categories and compete with friends in an Oscar pool.
Our AI-powered ensemble model analyzed thousands of precursor awards, guild results, and critical signals to predict the 98th Academy Awards.
Every prediction we made for the 98th ceremony, with confidence levels.
A multi-model ensemble system that combines four specialized prediction engines, each tuned for different award dynamics.
Tracks guild award winners across PGA, DGA, SAG, WGA, BAFTA, Golden Globe, and craft-specific guilds like ASC and ACE. Guild alignment with Oscar winners is historically the strongest single predictor.
Aggregates prediction market odds, betting lines, and community consensus signals. Captures the collective intelligence of awards watchers and oddsmakers in real time.
Weighs critical acclaim (Metacritic), festival performance, For Your Consideration campaign intensity, and thematic patterns. Identifies the "narrative momentum" behind each contender.
Category-specific weights trained on 20 years of historical data. Recognizes that Best Picture follows different signals than Best Animated Short, and adjusts accordingly.
Higher confidence predictions are more likely to be correct. The model applies per-category confidence ceilings to prevent overconfidence in volatile races.
The model ingests data from 12 award bodies, film festivals, critic aggregators, and prediction markets.
Think you can beat the model? Pick winners across all 24 categories and compete with friends in an Oscar pool.
